Independent project

US prices are gross of confidential manufacturer rebates, so they overstate net US prices by an unknown share.

US vs Canada, molecule by molecule

What does one molecule cost in the US vs Canada?

The same active molecule sells at two prices on two sides of the border. This ledger starts from 500 high-spending Medicare Part D molecules and matches each against Canadian price references, one molecule per row, so the gap is a number instead of an anecdote. 194 match. The rest are listed with US data only.

194

molecules matched

66.7x

largest US-to-Canada price ratio (Rivaroxaban)

US$125.5B

Medicare Part D spent in 2024 on matched molecules

4.4x

median US-to-Canada ratio across matched molecules

Explorer

Look up a molecule

Type a molecule name, a brand, or an ATC code. Each row shows US per-unit cost from Medicare Part D 2024 beside the Canadian reference price, with the ratio between them.

MoleculeATCUS per unitCanada per unitUS / Canada
RivaroxabanXareltoB01AF01US$17.30US figure is gross of rebatesUS$0.2666.7x
Latanoprostene BunodVyzultaS01EE06US$98.84US figure is gross of rebatesUS$1.53per mL64.5x
Dapagliflozin PropanediolDapagliflozin, Farxigan/aUS$18.23US figure is gross of rebatesUS$0.3847.8x
BimatoprostBimatoprost*, DurystaS01EE03US$92.81US figure is gross of rebatesUS$2.24per mL41.5x
CanagliflozinInvokanaA10BK02US$18.58US figure is gross of rebatesUS$0.5335.2x
ApixabanEliquisB01AF02US$9.63US figure is gross of rebatesUS$0.3032.3x
Sitagliptin PhosphateJanuvian/aUS$17.96US figure is gross of rebatesUS$0.6030.0x
TravoprostTravatan Z, TravoprostS01EE04US$33.36US figure is gross of rebatesUS$1.15per mL29.0x
PegfilgrastimNeulasta, Neulasta OnproL03AA13US$10,307.04US figure is gross of rebatesUS$359.18per container28.7x
MirabegronMirabegron ER, MyrbetriqG04BD12US$14.56US figure is gross of rebatesUS$0.5327.3x
EnzalutamideXtandiL02BB04US$136.49US figure is gross of rebatesUS$5.3325.6x
TicagrelorBrilintaB01AC24US$7.26US figure is gross of rebatesUS$0.2925.1x
ClobazamClobazam, OnfiN05BA09US$3.98US figure is gross of rebatesUS$0.1624.8x
Lisdexamfetamine DimesylateLisdexamfetamine Dimesylate, Vyvansen/aUS$10.02US figure is gross of rebatesUS$0.4224.1x
Bromfenac SodiumBromfenac Sodium, Bromsiten/aUS$86.71US figure is gross of rebatesUS$4.00per mL21.6x
EtanerceptEnbrel, Enbrel MiniL04AB01US$1,819.32US figure is gross of rebatesUS$87.97per container20.7x
AdalimumabHumira, Humira PenL04AB04US$3,505.99US figure is gross of rebatesUS$172.02per container20.4x
EstradiolClimara, DivigelG03CA03US$1.70US figure is gross of rebatesUS$0.0919.5x
BrexpiprazoleRexultiN05AX16US$49.56US figure is gross of rebatesUS$2.5619.4x
Adalimumab-AdbmAdalimumab-Adbm(Cf), Adalimumab-Adbm(Cf) Penn/aUS$3,216.58US figure is gross of rebatesUS$172.02per container18.7x
MetronidazoleFlagyl, MetrogelA01AB17US$0.78US figure is gross of rebatesUS$0.0418.6x
DasatinibDasatinib, SprycelL01EA02US$411.53US figure is gross of rebatesUS$24.0117.1x
BosutinibBosulifL01EA04US$265.63US figure is gross of rebatesUS$15.6517.0x
Varenicline TartrateChantix, Tyrvayan/aUS$5.22US figure is gross of rebatesUS$0.3415.5x
UstekinumabStelara*L04AC05US$13,766.05US figure is gross of rebatesUS$911.08per container15.1x

per dosage unit: us figure is gross of rebates.

Findings

The gaps, stated plainly

Each finding below is computed from the ledger. The US column is Medicare Part D 2024, gross of confidential rebates, which overstates net US prices by an unknown share.

Which molecule has the widest US-to-Canada price gap?

Rivaroxaban costs 66.7x more per unit in the US than in Canada

One Rivaroxaban dosage unit costs $17.30 under Medicare Part D against $0.26 through Ontario's public drug plan. The five widest gaps are Rivaroxaban (66.7x), Latanoprostene Bunod (64.5x), Dapagliflozin Propanediol (47.8x), Bimatoprost (41.5x), Canagliflozin (35.2x). US figures are gross of confidential rebates, so treat each ratio as an upper bound.

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What is the typical gap, not just the extreme?

The median molecule costs 4.4x more in the US

Across 194 matched molecules, the median US-to-Canada per-unit ratio is 4.4x. 54 molecules sit under 2x, while 61 sit at 8x or more. The gap is structural, not a handful of outliers.

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How much spending does the ledger cover?

$125.5B in 2024 Medicare Part D spending across 194 molecules

The matched molecules account for $125.5 billion of 2024 Medicare Part D spending, so the gaps describe where most of the money goes, not a niche corner of the market.

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Which drug classes have the widest gaps?

Sensory organs leads at a 41.5x median ratio

By ATC level-1 class, Sensory organs (S) has the widest median gap at 41.5x across 4 molecules. Some classes are structurally cheaper in Canada than others, which is where negotiation leverage concentrates.

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What happened to the Rinvoq anecdote?

Upadacitinib (Rinvoq): 5.8x

The often-quoted Rinvoq comparison is one row of 194 here: $217.14 per unit in the US against $37.73 in Canada. The ledger replaces the anecdote with a number anyone can check.

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Charts

The gap, drawn

Real values from the ledger, hand-drawn as SVG. Hover for exact numbers.

Largest US-to-Canada price ratios

Per-unit price ratios for the molecules with the widest gaps. US numbers are gross of rebates.

Rivaroxaban: US US$17 vs Canada US$0.26 (ratio 66.7x)Rivaroxaban66.7xUS$17 vs US$0.26 per unitLatanoprostene Bunod: US US$99 vs Canada US$1.53 (ratio 64.5x)Latanoprostene Bunod64.5xUS$99 vs US$1.53 per unitDapagliflozin Propanediol: US US$18 vs Canada US$0.38 (ratio 47.8x)Dapagliflozin Propane…47.8xUS$18 vs US$0.38 per unitBimatoprost: US US$93 vs Canada US$2.24 (ratio 41.5x)Bimatoprost41.5xUS$93 vs US$2.24 per unitCanagliflozin: US US$19 vs Canada US$0.53 (ratio 35.2x)Canagliflozin35.2xUS$19 vs US$0.53 per unitApixaban: US US$9.63 vs Canada US$0.30 (ratio 32.3x)Apixaban32.3xUS$9.63 vs US$0.30 per unitSitagliptin Phosphate: US US$18 vs Canada US$0.60 (ratio 30.0x)Sitagliptin Phosphate30.0xUS$18 vs US$0.60 per unitTravoprost: US US$33 vs Canada US$1.15 (ratio 29.0x)Travoprost29.0xUS$33 vs US$1.15 per unitPegfilgrastim: US US$10,307 vs Canada US$359 (ratio 28.7x)Pegfilgrastim28.7xUS$10,307 vs US$359 per unitMirabegron: US US$15 vs Canada US$0.53 (ratio 27.3x)Mirabegron27.3xUS$15 vs US$0.53 per unitEnzalutamide: US US$136 vs Canada US$5.33 (ratio 25.6x)Enzalutamide25.6xUS$136 vs US$5.33 per unitTicagrelor: US US$7.26 vs Canada US$0.29 (ratio 25.1x)Ticagrelor25.1xUS$7.26 vs US$0.29 per unitUS/Canada price ratio

How the gaps are distributed

How many molecules fall into each ratio band. Most molecules sit in a narrow band, while a long tail pays far more in the US.

1-2x: 54 molecules1-2x542-4x: 38 molecules2-4x384-6x: 28 molecules4-6x286-8x: 13 molecules6-8x138-10x: 17 molecules8-10x1710x+: 44 molecules10x+44Molecules per US/Canada ratio band

Median gap by drug class

Median US-to-Canada ratio per ATC level-1 class. Some classes are structurally cheaper in Canada than others.

S Sensory organs: median ratio 41.5x across 4 moleculesSSensory organs41.5xB Blood and blood forming organs: median ratio 32.3x across 3 moleculesBBlood and blood for…32.3xG Genito urinary system and sex hormones: median ratio 19.5x across 4 moleculesGGenito urinary syst…19.5xH Systemic hormonal preparations: median ratio 8.9x across 3 moleculesHSystemic hormonal p…8.9xL Antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents: median ratio 8.7x across 24 moleculesLAntineoplastic and …8.7xN Nervous system: median ratio 5.2x across 25 moleculesNNervous system5.2xA Alimentary tract and metabolism: median ratio 5.1x across 20 moleculesAAlimentary tract an…5.1xJ Antiinfectives for systemic use: median ratio 4.7x across 5 moleculesJAntiinfectives for …4.7xDarker = wider median gap

Methodology

How the ledger is built

Every rule below is the code in scripts/, not a description of intent. The pipeline is re-runnable.

01

Start from the Overall rows

The CMS file repeats every drug once per manufacturer plus an Overall rollup row. Only Overall rows are used, so no dollar is counted twice. 3,625 unique drugs remain for 2024.

02

Normalize to molecules

Generic names are lowercased, spacing collapsed, and strength suffixes stripped, so brand Eliquis and generic apixaban become one molecule row. Dosage forms stay out of the key. A molecule is a molecule.

03

Resolve identity through RxNorm

Each normalized molecule is searched against the RxNorm REST API for an ingredient-level RxCUI, and the ATC code is read from its properties. Matches below the confidence bar are quarantined, never guessed.

04

US price per dosage unit

Total 2024 Part D spending divided by total 2024 dosage units per molecule, spending-weighted. This is gross of confidential manufacturer rebates, which CMS is prohibited from disclosing per drug, so it overstates the net US price by an unknown share.

05

Canadian reference price

PMPRB publishes no machine-readable molecule-level price file, so the Canadian column uses the Ontario Drug Benefit e-formulary: the lowest Drug Benefit Price per unit across matched formulary rows, converted at the 2024 Bank of Canada average USD/CAD rate. That is the price Ontario's public plan pays pharmacies, not a national list price. Molecules with no formulary listing are shown with US data only and labeled honestly.

06

The GLOBE context

On September 30, 2026 CMS finalized the GLOBE model, which ties Part B rebates to benchmarks from 19 countries including Canada. The gaps in this ledger are the reason that policy exists. The ledger does not attempt to model what GLOBE would do to them.

What this does not do

  • US prices are gross of confidential rebates. Treat every ratio as an upper bound on the true gap.
  • Medicare Part D covers one population. Commercial insurance and Medicaid pay different prices.
  • A dosage unit is not a treatment course. A cheap per-unit drug taken daily can cost more per year than an expensive one taken once.
  • Molecules without a Canadian price match are not comparable rows. They are listed, not ranked.

Honest unknowns

  • PMPRB publishes no machine-readable molecule-level price file, so the Canadian column uses Ontario Drug Benefit formulary prices instead. ODB prices are what Ontario's public plan pays pharmacies, not a national list price.
  • Whether each CMS dosage unit maps cleanly to the Canadian pack size for the same molecule. 16 molecules are excluded from the ranking on this basis, each with a documented reason in data/insights.json.

Developers

Query the ledger

REST with OpenAPI 3.1, a JSON-RPC MCP server for agents, and the full ledger as CSV. No key needed.

REST endpoints

OpenAPI 3.1 spec →

Download the ledger

One row per molecule: US spending, per-unit costs, Canadian reference price, ratio, ATC class, RxCUI.

Download molecule-ledger.csv

For AI agents

Give your agent the ledger

Three tools over streamable HTTP: look up one molecule, rank the gaps, break down by drug class.

Setup prompt for Claude Code

Add this MCP server to Claude Code: {{"mcpServers": { "molecule-price-gap": { "url": "https://this-site.example/mcp" } }}}. Then look up the US vs Canada price gap for upadacitinib..

Data

Sources and provenance

Two government sources, one standard crosswalk, one currency series. Nothing else enters the ledger.

Medicare Part D Spending by Drug, 2024

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (US)

Annual per-drug spending file: 3,625 unique drugs in the 2024 release, five years of history per row, manufacturer-level detail behind Overall rollups. Gross of confidential rebates.

Ontario Drug Benefit e-formulary

Ontario Ministry of Health

DIN-level Drug Benefit Prices. The ledger takes the lowest price per unit across matched formulary rows for each molecule, the price Ontario's public plan pays pharmacies. Retrieved October 10, 2026. PMPRB publishes no machine-readable molecule-level price file, which is why the formulary is the Canadian source.

RxNorm ingredient mapping

US National Library of Medicine

Ingredient-level RxCUI search plus ATC property lookup, one query per molecule, results cached in data/rxnorm_cache.json.

USD/CAD annual average, 2024

Bank of Canada

Daily exchange rate series averaged over 2024, used to express Canadian prices in USD for the ratio.